The political crisis was also able to ask Italy under the EU rescue umbrella, Berlusconi reacts with the adoption of a savings package in front of the distrust vote
Although Greece has solved the debt champion Italy at the top in 2009, but the public debt was already in 2009 on very unhealthy 116% of gross domestic product (GDP) swollen. In 2010, after previous information from Rome, a deficit of 5% is expected again. Before the Scandal Minister Prosident Silvio Berlusconi on the 14th. December must face a mistrust vote in Parliament, he brought another austerity package on Tuesday. He wants to prevent the rising nervousstate from rising in investors to panic and also saved Italy for further rising interest rates in the bankruptcy. The political crisis in the country demands this scenario.
It is happy to speculate that after Greece and Ireland now Portugal and Spain are the next bankruptcy candidates (Greece, Ireland, Portugal — and soon Spain?To). This is right on the one hand, because speculators use the economic interdependencies, for example, for example, the smaller Portugal to use the lever on the fourth grave Euroland Spain, but with the economic basic data, this has little to do. This is especially clear that the example of the heavyweight Italy, which is already on the basis of extreme debt "Liaison" The International Truth Fund (IMF) was warned in September. Specifically, the country has actually increased a priceless debt burden of almost 2 trillion euros. With this total, even the larger and more powerful Germany at the top of the debt makers in Europe.
Compared to Italy 116%, Portugal 2009 excluded only a public debt of more than 76% in the ratio for GDP, which was even under the average of 79.2% in the euro area. Spain with only 53% was even significantly below. But it is correct but that both countries have a higher budget deficit as Italy. Even if it will be higher than in 2010 again than in Italy, both countries will be far from the 120% removed, which Italy probably has to show. Portugal and Spain are remained clear from the dangerous brand of 100% of GDP with about 83% and more than 63%, but Belgium is exceeded instead (Belgium’s state crisis deepen).
What the unemployment is concerned are Portugal and Italy on a similar level. However, unemployment in Italy has rising again since August, while in October in Portugal has fallen slightly again. Spain, however, is more competitive here, because it is at 20.7% off the EU leader in unemployment, which, in the light of the rusted real estate bubble, actually a real significantly high risk potential than in Portugal has thumbs up.
During Portugal with his first balanced savings price in the 3. Quarter could even increase weak economic growth to 0.4%, Italy went straight to the opposite way. Italian growth fell to 0.2%. Even the export-oriented country was the rising euro course driven into the parade. As a similar, Germany whose record growth (+ 2.3%) in 2. Quarter, especially demanded by the low euro course, in the 3. Quarter to + 0.7% shrinked. Analogously, industrial production in Germany and in Italy went to the knees in the same period. If Germany was able to increase by + 1.6% in August, it was in September -0.8%. In Italy, the situation developed clearly crasser. In August, industrial production also grew by 1.6%, but even a minus of 2.1% was recorded in September.
The zinslast eats the austerity package
That the Senate in Rome on Tuesday evening with the "Stability Act for 2011" also adopted another austerity package, which is to be saved in the next three years 25 billion euros, will also not have a positive impact on growth. It is partly the already full-time savings: a settings stop in public service and freezing of the lean should bring 5 billion. The regions should also save a total of 13 billion. By selling benches silver you want to coil 3.6 billion in the cash registers. For this purpose, the pension reform should relieve the funds by 4.7 billion.
The opposite costs for the refinancing of the sovereign debt. The interest rates for Italian government bonds have already increased significantly since the Greece crisis. On the 30th. In November, Italian papers were traded over 4.8% with a ten-year term. These are about 2% more than Germany has to pay. Since Italy needs a good 270 billion of fresh money in the coming year, more than 12 billion euros must be applied for this sum in the next year, almost 7 billion more than Germany had to pay for that. The money will definitely be missing ten years for investments and must be deprived of the taxpayers and is therefore not available for consumption.
The bill could be significantly more expensive if interest rates continue to rise. For example, Ireland had to pay this Italian interest rate in August. In the meantime, as in the case of Greece already in the spring of the year, after an initially gradual increase the returns also explodes the interest for Irish bonds and now over 9% fall. You can calculate what was happening in Italy if interest rates continue to rise in view of the country’s enormous debt. Herewith, it becomes clear why the IMF and some EU countries throw on an expansion of the EU rescue umbrella because the current 750 billion euros could hardly be sufficient to caught to Ireland also Italy. Here it turns out that in fact Italy, because of its permanent political and economic problems, which represents the big danger for the euro ("Italy is the biggest danger for the euro"To).
Government crisis is thrilling euro crisis
However, the current government crisis, which has left a largely action-related government, is the best Nambothe for the fact that the nervous is rising and thus the interest rates of Italy can be easily turned into the high. Finally, the Minister Prosident Silvio Berlusconi and his cabinet must face a mistrust vote in parliament next Tuesday. A responsible head of government, especially in this situation, has placed new elections after his coalition government is burst. But Berlusconi wants to threaten again. He hopes, with his campaign, the drunks behind Gianfranco Fini as "irresponsible rendering" to brands to get the usual voices to keep the mistrust vote short.
The numbers currently circulating about the potential tuning behavior point out that Berlusconi will lose the vote. Therefore, they pushed into the cabbage, he became the tactical variant of one "steered crisis" To fall back on. According to him, he was reimbursed before the vote on how Fini demands from his ex-federal partner in order to be repeated by state president Giorgio Napolitano with a government education. Ultimately, however, whether Berlusconi is now surviving the vote on Tuesday and without his own majority, or once again his government is interrupted under integration of Fini. In both cases, the agony of a government was just a bit different, which is in the end. As is to be heard, state-prassident Napolitano is therefore ensuring that the euro crisis is worsened via the government crisis and Italy is becoming more actionable.
You also care in Brussel. The EU Commission is not convinced by Berlusconis savings efforts. As soon as elections were allowed to be in Italy, one wonders in Brussel if you can talk about a savings plan?. For in Berlusconi Stabilitatsgesetz also additional expenditures are provided which are unfunded by Kurzungen elsewhere. In addition to additional expenditure for universities, for the support of unemployed persons, the EU Commission also the planned additional revenue for inaccessible. In addition to the sale of villas in state hand or the auction of radio frequencies, above all, as the first austerity package in the summer, the hunt for taxes was carried out into the field. But this is likely to be summoned in Italy, but the successes are always in close limits.
Unique revenues, however, do nothing to the structural problems and the fact that the interest load even further increases, even if the interest rate would remain equal. EU Missing and Economic Commissioner Olli Rehn will travel to Rome today and formulate his criticism of budgetary management behind closed deals more clearly than he has previously diplomatically in the public.