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No, so the trade magazine BMJ, because the tests are not so created so that they are asking if the vaccines reduce the risk of infection or cause diseases, especially not in the risk group of old people
The rough hope is that the availability of vaccines will quickly put an end to the Corona spook. Russia has won the race and quickly ied a controversial emergency dollar for Sputnik-V, in China already find mass tests with vaccines, US Prassident Donald Trump will probably not create that a vaccine can be delivered in the United States prior to the prassidal election. However, the American pharmaceutical company now wants to apply for emergency dollars in the USA in November. In the EU are the vaccines of Pfizer, Biontech and AstraZeneca in the Zulangprozess. Overall, there are at least 210 vaccine projects.
However, the gross question in all vaccines remains not only how safe they are, but also whether and how well they protect against infection. Although around 40 vaccines are being tested for people, some are in Phase 3, in which several tens of thousand people are vaccinated, which is happy to be made in people in poor countries. Even if Phase 3 is completed and that is at the moment, it is not clear how high the effectiveness is.
The vaccines are tested mainly to young and healthy test standards, how old people appeal to it, is previously unknown. Although there are also 65-year-old, but the effectiveness had to be determined above all in this age group, which does not happen. Like Marc Lipsitch and Natalie E. Dean in your contribution understanding Covid-19 Vaccine Efficacy writing, which is currently published in Science, Phase 3 Covid-19 tests are not designed to examine the effectiveness in certain groups, but very important in Covid-19 a strategy with limited vaccine goods, since the old ones represent the distance at the strongest hedged risk group. Although anti-body is still an immune response, it is still unclear whether a protective effect occurs and how long this hold.
Peter Doshi has now worked out the open questions in a contribution for BMJ and once again in the title to the question of whether the now developed vaccines are saved, answered that the ongoing attempts were not designed to answer that. While it means that only safe and effective reinforcement have been admitted. You should either act so that the risk of infection is reduced or the consequences of infection will be delivered, so that a serious illness and treatment in the hospital is avoided. But Doshi makes it clear:
None of the ongoing attempts will be carried out so that a reduction of severe consequences such as hospital delivery, intensive treatment or death traps is discovered. You will be performed so that you can see if you can interrupt the transmission of the virus.
It is only determined whether a symptomatic disease is prevented during the vaccinated. And it can only be a slight illness in a positive tested. With the tests of Pfizer and Moderna with a placebo control group, a cough or breathing difficulty and a positive PCR test range to prove the effectiveness. For the proof of efficacy, then 150 test participants were sufficient, which show slight symptoms — the vaccine should be administered hundreds of millions of people. This is the basis very small.
Much will remain open at the global experiment with vaccinations
As it stands with serious illnesses, however, remains open according to Doshi. He raises the pharmaceutical company no trickserei, but writes, which Konne also lies that it is hardly frequenting for such tests that trials are difficult to illuminate Covid-19 and must be admitted to the hospital. Only a few percent of the positive COVID-19 has been taken in the USA in April with symptoms in the hospital. If you only 30.000 test persons tests, severe diseases will be correspondingly low — and if a group of 150 subjects to evaluate rates, probably can hardly tell if the vaccine prevents severe disease or even death. But this was the test of Moderna after the US National Institutes of Health. Tal Zaks, the chief physician of Moderna confirmed against BMJ, that it lacks of statistical significance. For such a proof, the time is missing.
The tests could not show that the vaccines protect against transmission. For this one had to test the subjects at least twice a week about a long time, but this is realistic not exported, says Zak. Moderna wants to recognize how Pfizer from the Phase 3 Clinical Test, whether the vaccine in CovID-19 infected risk reduction causes 30 percent. If the vaccine does this with symptomatic infected, ZAK, he became severe even with severe. Flu vaccines were, according to Zak, also better against heavy than slight illnesses.
Doshi, on the other hand, states that randomized attempts had shown that vaccines cause a reduction in risk for symptomatic influenza, but there were no attempts with old people. At all, there were only two attempts with a placebo control group for this age, but those were not designed to discover disease instructions and death trap. Rather, it has been shown that a rough increase in flu vaccinations did not lead to a decline in mortality. And, says Lipsitch and Dean, influenza vaccinations drove to a weaker and more short-lived immune response with old people.
People were expected by approved vaccines after efficacy by the Phase 3 tests that they reduce the risk of being infected (or stacks), and / or presumption that diseases are milder. None of this will really be the case according to Doshi when the vaccines are allowed, once except that long-term sequences will not be known.
One may doubt if Doshi says that there is still time to get the tests so that they prefers if the vaccines specifically offer the old people that strongly attention and the question of the immune system is considered COVID-19 reacts: "The Covid-19 tests were not designed with our input, but it is not to be spat to bring our demands to be valid and outgrow their direction." Because so much on the game stands for governments and the companies will probably go primarily for speed, less efficacy and security.