The negotiations of Israelis and Palastians are overshadowed by three dangers
Slowly took care of Israel and the palastic autonomous beliefs: Israel’s head of government Ehud Olmert and the Palastic Prasident Mahdud Abbas work on a principle agreement in which the skeleton of the primary Palastic State should be determined. To the Middle East Conference initiated by the United States, which is expected to take place in November, it should be done. For otherwise, so the pavement, the summit for Israel and the palastic autonomous areas became a shot in the oven, because the US in the Middle East persecute other interests. At the same time, the interventions of Aufs are currently not particularly welcome: The local conflict parties fledged that they could pull the shortest in the swamp of self-interest. And that in turn was not staying for you without follow. Another potential danger for the re-revival peace process was the former Israeli head of government Benjamin Netanyahu: He was simply chosen as chairman of the right-conservative Likud block and threatens to force new elections now.
This man does not want to agree, on the contrary, Benjamin Netanjahu does not even try to hide that he can live with divisions, in society, politics, in his own party. On Spade Tuesday evening, the result of the election to the chairman of the right-conservative Likud block was currently being conceded, he stands before hundreds of his arms on a bean in a hall on the Tel Aviver Messele Strand, behind the usual blue-weave background with the Current Likud slogan "Israel elements success" and smashes with a serious expression in the hall:
Today, the internal conflicts have come to an end; From tomorrow we will use our strength to bring a new guided to Israel.
"A small, unimportant group"
Meanwhile, drabs provide a small group, caught by a lusty, present man with glasses and Kippa a violent discussion with the security personnel: These are Mosche Feiglin and his trailer, the most outstanding edge of the Likud and at the same time the most serious adversaries Netanjahus. Monthly, the camp Feiglins had delivered a bitter mud battle with the saculas, former prime ministers trained in the USA.
In the core: Netanyahu might establish the Likud as a moderate, conservative political force, which stands for neoliberal values and military deterrence; Feiglin enters, among other things, for an annexation of the West Bank and a tied settlement construction, which no longer sells to Israeli electants and voting to the Likud at theest elections were tuned: settlers are no longer available from a coarse part of the publicity seen in society; The settlements are now seen by many as an obstacle on the way to peace.
Thus, Netanyahu Feiglin and his people called "a small, unimportant group," but avoids further executions to his diplomatic planes and rather talks about poverty, which has meanwhile captured a quarter of the Judian and a third of the Arab Israelis, promises that he promises that he promises all this is, through more privatizations, "incentives to work", what he means a Hartz IV-like system and above all lower taxes.
Otherwise, the analysts of media and political parties, because it is already very spat and because Netanyahu always says the same thing, and then breathe: though Netanjahu and his pendant giving themselves in a victory and try the election result to a victory on the whole line To explain, though they show the heart for the weak and muscles for the strong, the prematured storm was allowed to stay on the government for the time being.
Because, yes, the man who his feelings lovingly titled with his potted bibi, although he has worshiped that years ago, got 73 percent of the votes, but those came from just 39 percent of the members of 1974 from several rights and conservatives Parties Closed Bundis Likud.
And: In Parliament, the once-powered block has only twelve the 120 seats; In order to bring through a vote of vote, he had to pack with a variety of other parties — and is Netanyahu, in all vagueness, controversially, at the moment.
The situation could look different if there was an agreement between Israelis and Palasticians in the peace process between Israelis and Palasticians, because it became almost forcibly with settlement rooms: parties like the populist Jisrael Beitenu and the religious shads that are currently sitting in the government, even Couple Members from the Central Kadima Group of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who felt many former Likud members, could then dare the uprising and face the side of the Likud.
There will be a new framework agreement?
And so always the question in the room, whether everything could not have been in vain in the end, if the subhars of the Israeli government and the emergency government in the West Bank reach secret places, behind sealed treatments to negotiate a framework agreement in which the corner points to negotiate the art palastic state. Until the USA conference scheduled by the US, which is expected to take place in November, the document is to be completed and, among other things, state institutions, the form of art of the art Palastina and the cooperation of the two neighbor countries.
The boundaries as well as the questions, which will happen with the escape and their descendants as well as East Jerusalem, so the really controversial points should be regulated afterwards.
So it’s a tough stucco work, where the three question marks are always: what is made from Netanyahu? How will the influence from abroad influence the result? And at short notice the most important question: what’s going on with Gaza, with Hamas?
This question prepares rough headaches in the West Bank in these days, because the way it is now, a new edition of the unit government is out of the question, because Israel threatens the termination of cooperation, and the exit of new elections is completely unpredictable, whereby anyway is not sure if Hamas has been giving up its now more and more consolidated influence in the Gaza strip, even if you are currently calling for loudly new elections.
And so representatives of the palastic autonomous deeds have relocated them to wait — and to silence. "No, I have nothing to say," says a source from the environment of the Palastian Government:
Every wrong word can have unavailable consequences. Our position has not changed: no contacts, no talk, no common government with Hamas. As for us, she is an illegal organization.
And yet: the reports in Arab media about that Hamas and the Fatah Group talk to each other under the driving of Prasident Mahmud Abbas, they have to give themselves exploring the exploration of third parties, it is called. In fact, governments in the region have repeatedly adopted an adoption of the two pages; Lastly, the Yemen offered itself as an intermediary. "It’s hard to believe that they are not talking to each other," are palatinian journalists safe.
After the delivery stop, the lights were amed in parts Gaza’s
Because the prere is coarse: in the Arab world, in which millions of palastic escape lingings and their descendants live, the concern is about that the power struggle from the palastic areas on the neighboring states overlooked, the anger could probably be directed against the guest governments if these relate to clear positions for one or the other side.
And: soon, possibly within days, threatens the Gaza Strip, which is now almost hermetically sealed for two months, a humanitarian catastrophe, which then had to deal with the Arab world, which in turn contacts with Hamas and thus a possible confrontation to require the United States.
Although delivered for more aid, but many economic sectors have reached the production guts — and even if there are still some, the finished products remain in the camps because they can not be exported. In addition, the Israeli company, which supplies gas and gasoline into the Gaza strip, could soon set deliveries.
Already on Saturday, the company had stopped his tank easter for several hours and she was put into motion again after massive prere by the Israeli government — because promptly became visible, as critical the situation is: within minutes after the delivery stop were in parts of Gaza’s delivery stop Lights out.
It is a critical situation for the guided in Ramallah: The publicity is glad that the new peace process has led to the degree that the boycott ended and at least partially paid housing at least partially paid. On the other hand, however, she also observes exactly how the emergency government is opposite to people in the Gaza Strip.
If Israel admit a humanitarian catastrophe, the mood against the government in Ramallah and their cooperation with Jerusalem was turned. So space Israeli government officers meanwhile found that the answer to this question mark is not found in Ramallah, but in Jerusalem; In the Auf Ministry, it is called:
We can not ignore Gaza completely. We are the only ones who are strong enough to get the gaza strip alive, so we will have to open the limits for limited imports and exports for a short time or long
Many nice gestures to the outside
But this will not be as easy as it sounds, because here is also the public opinion an obstacle: militar and security services are against a border officer, because this was the staff there — and also, which is the most convincing in the power of many Israelis Argument is because the number of bassam missiles in the direction of Israel has gone downwards: since the borders are to be, and agyfs are massively proceeding against the smuggling, the palastic weapons industry simply amed the funds to produce their own construction, so The reasonsion of the Israeli Defense Ministry.
So Israel’s Premier Olmert also plays on time and is wresting towards a few nice gestures, while he forced behind closed treatments the framework surveillance: Fatah-near Milizionaries are taken from the Army’s search lists, delivering weapons to the safety force and a symbol to the other.
In this way, Olmert recently traveled against the resistance of domestic intelligence service and personal protection to the Palastian city of Jericho to meet with Abbas and was thus the first Israeli prime for years, the FUB sat on the ground of the autonomic resources. It had been a necessary step, it is called from the Buro Olmert:
We would like to show that we see Prasident Abbas and the government guided by Prime Minister Fajad as a partner, and do not want to patronize them.
Note that the source of Abbas calls "Prasident" — until recently, the drivers of the palastic autonomous deeds in the Israeli reading were still "chairman", which was possible in the early 90s, that in the early 1990s Oslo overcomes the Arabic word "RAIs" is used, which can be translated with both terms — a small aspect of current development, but an important, say experts for political communication, because he should show the Palastic Office that now a new ARA is upgraded, not just overs Day business, but above all the future is spoken.
The interests of the USA
A considerable sturgeon with this Ringelpietz with touching is an American: Condoleeza Rice, US Foreign Minister. Every few months she lands in the region to see the right to praise partners to criticize opponents — but above all, to take care that nobody does something that harms American interests.
And of course, if there is a positive development, then you and the rest of the US government would like to be there, "and that much more now, where the Prasidial’s election campaign is in full swing," says John Willis from the American daily Washington Post — "Whether you really have something to contribute, is two-ranking; What pays is what the Wahler think at home."
For example, the US government’s strategy is one of the main colors why Israelis and Palastinians want to appear to the Middle East Summit with a Finished Frame Document — they fledged to become astatists in the American election campaign: Whether right or left, whether palastinians Or Israelis — at the moment you agree outside of Defense Ministry and Olmert-Buro that the United States and the governments of the region are talking to each other at the moment."The interests of the US are not ours," says an employee of Prasident Abbas, and once again gives again, which is over and over again these days on both sides again and again. The comment of the newspaper Ma’ariv Easy of the last Rice visit a few weeks ago:
Washington wants to stabilize Iraq to keep Iran in chess, while we need a peace process for the entire government.
In Hairetzente Aluf Benn and Schmel Rosner under the title "Hurray! The Saudis come!"Condoleeza Rice is currently busy correcting the mistakes they made when they were still the security consultant of Prasident George Bush: Iraq, Iran, North Korea — awarded opportunities, false strategies, and success their correction efforts crook in the Middle East, on the Saudi commitment to want to appear to the summit in autumn, which is already considered as good as certainly anyway.
Important is important to the Americans, above all, because they were upgraded the meeting and gave him the aura of particular to other Middle East conferences, because they know the launches, especially as some government in the Middle East, even closely complied with the US, Do not give a particularly rough mess, hide your backup.
Participate in the partnership with the US, dear Cypt’s Prasident Hosni Mubarak just told the last visit in his country; You will "continue to choose with a whole power for a stabilization of Iraq," the Saudi Government thanked in a statement for the commitment of the US government to deliver weapons worth several billion euros.
How gross the chances are that the conflict parties over all have these adversity and achieve a result, no one can say at the moment. However, if it is that way, the result must exist the test of the busts on both sides, so find the approval of a possible rough majority.
And at this point came again Netanyahu into the game. "We can not forget that he wants power, and a surveillance with the palasticians whose sequence will be settlement room, a steep template for him," says the Analyst’s Miriam Goldberg from the TV channel canal eight:
He will put everything at this moment to split Israel and especially Olmert’s party Kadima, he will warn before the dangers to represent Olmert as a sellout of the state and as a failure to demand a referendum and then try the government with a middle Expand right coalition.